Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
'2022 has not been -- and will not be -- the kind of 2021 bull market, which lifted all boats.'
FAO's Food Price Index is a monthly measure of change in international prices of 55 commodities.
'Over the next two quarters, markets will be guided by observing the earnings resilience of corporates during the second lockdown, progress of the monsoon and the damage, if any, to rural spending power due to the second wave.'
Besides, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has also added another blow to FMCG makers as they expect a rise in the prices of wheat, edible oil and crude. Companies such as Dabur and Parle are watching the situation and will undertake calibrated price increases to mitigate the inflationary pressures.
In the month of May wholesale price inflation entered double digits and stood at 10.16 per cent.
The added burden on manufacturers for recycling e-waste is expected to impact their margins, which may further lead them towards hiking prices of other items.
India has substantially increased its crude oil imports from the US, with the country's share in India's crude basket hitting a record 14.3 per cent in December, commerce ministry data showed.
India imported goods worth $4.23 billion in June from sanctions-hit Russia, up 6.8 times as compared to last year, as demand for shipments of crude oil grew at the fastest pace during the month. Crude oil worth $3.02 billion was imported in June, which translates into a share of 71 per cent of the total imports from Russia, commerce and industry ministry data showed. Similarly, during the April-June quarter, India's imports from Russia were valued at $9.27 billion, up 369 per cent on year.
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation forecast for 2021-22 to 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost. The RBI in June had pegged the retail inflation estimate at 5.1 per cent for the current financial year. The RBI has the mandate to keep inflation in a band of 2-4 per cent, with a tolerance level of 2 per cent on either side.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
In a first, the Centre will start selling tomatoes at discounted rates in retail markets in the national capital and few other cities from Friday to provide relief to the consumers as the price of the kitchen staple is ruling high at over Rs 200 per kilogram in some parts of the country.
Amid indication that prices of compressed natural gas (CNG) may go up in Delhi, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) said if the hike is allowed, it would compound the problem of the common people who are already hit hard by price rise.
The operating margin of India Inc is likely to drop in the December quarter with a 100-120 bps year-on-year decline, as 27/40 sectors are set to see crimped margins despite higher revenue, according to a report. Surging commodity prices and price hikes may help companies report a healthy 16-17 per cent revenue growth to Rs 9.1 lakh crore during the quarter ending December, the Crisil report said on Tuesday. Software major TCS will open the earnings season Wednesday.
'Let the high price of onions clear the market, matching supply with demand.' 'Let onion growers keep exporting -- we are the world's largest onion exporter, export 10% of our production,' advises Naushad Forbes.
Currently, middlemen are fully exploiting the situation along with some concerned authorities and earning huge profits by increasing the prices arbitrarily and artificially on the basis of speculation.
Manufacturing companies have been outperformers on the bourses in the current year, leading to a rise in their weighting in the benchmark index. Companies in sectors such as FMCG, automobile, pharmaceuticals, metals, cement, and agrochemicals now account for 25.43 per cent of the Nifty 50 index, up 88 basis points from 24.55 per cent at the end of December last year and a record low of 23.1 per cent at the end of CY20. The manufacturing sector is now dominated by FMCG majors such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Asian Paints, Nestle, and Britannia, accounting for 45 per cent of the combined market cap of all manufacturing companies in the index.
The correction seen in the stock markets thus far is insufficient and there are significant downside risks, given the way macroeconomic data is shaping up, a Nomura equity strategist said on Thursday. "The markets are trying to look through the current stress we see in the macros. There are potential risks to the market. "Our estimates assume no major impact on growth and earnings. "The market should have been at least 5 per cent lower than it is now.
Christine Lagarde said the prospect of rising interest rates in the US and China's slowdown are contributing to uncertainty and higher market volatility.
Rise in commodity prices, which has impacted the common man in the country, has surprisingly not hit the expatriates living here and their cost of living in Indian cities has actually become cheaper, a latest survey says.Seven Indian cities - Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Pune and Bangalore - all witnessed a fall in their global ranks making them cheaper to live in for expatriates.
Food prices, which have contributed to a large part of inflation over recent years, have remained benign, despite unseasonal rain.
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.89 lakh crore in two days of market fall, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 796 points on Wednesday, amid weak global market trends ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Fresh foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of a host of interest rate decisions from global central banks also added to the overall bearish trend. Besides, the US Fed meeting, the BoE (Bank of England) and the BoJ (Bank of Japan) are also scheduled to meet this week.
Trade union leaders in the pre-Budget consultation with Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Thursday demanded reigning in prices of essential items and increasing exemption limit on income tax to Rs 2 lakh (Rs 200,000).
The finance ministry and RBI must get less conservative and improve co-ordination.
Retail prices of onion have soared to Rs 70-80 per kg in most parts of the country, after dropping to Rs 50-55 per kg a week ago from the same high level due to seasonal shortages.
Shares of public sector enterprises have corrected by up to 22 per cent month-to-date until March 19, 2024. Analysts attribute this steep fall to the valuation exuberance seen after a sharp run in these counters last year and suggest investors remain selective regarding the stocks in this space. "The rally in public sector undertaking (PSU) stocks has been stretched and sharp, although it is somewhat justified by improvements seen in earnings, operations, balance sheets, and overall profitability.
Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI), the country's second-largest two-wheeler manufacturer, is planning to launch its first electric vehicle (EV) here by March next year, said CEO & MD Atsushi Ogata on Monday. The company would also enter the low-end motorcycle market in March by launching a 100cc engine bike at a price that will "positively shock" customers, he said while speaking with reporters, after launching the Activa with Honda Smart Key. HMSI's first EV, an electric scooter, will have a fixed battery and the second model will have two swappable batteries, Ogata explained.
Retail inflation slowed to 4.29 per cent in April from 5.52 per cent in March, mainly due to easing food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank mainly factors in the retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) while arriving at its monetary policy. As per the data released by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, inflation in the food basket was 2.02 per cent in April, down from 4.87 per cent in the preceding month.
Brokerage firms on Wednesday appeared divided in their calls on Larsen & Toubro (L&T) after the company's 2023-24 (FY24) October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) performance and guidance for the quarters ahead. While few stayed optimistic about the stock over future order inflow prospects, others saw increasing exposure to West Asia and fixed price contracts as a concern. In Wednesday's trade, L&T's share price closed at Rs 3,480 per piece, 4.22 per cent down from its previous day's close.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for FY23 to 7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.2 per cent mainly on account of higher inflation and a tight monetary policy. India's economy grew 13.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022-23, reflecting strong growth in services, ADB said in its second supplement to Asian Development Outlook Report 2022 (ADO 2022). "However, GDP growth is revised down from ADO 2022's forecasts to 7 per cent for FY2022 (ending March 2023) and 7.2 per cent for FY2023 (ending March 2024) as price pressures are expected to adversely impact domestic consumption, and sluggish global demand and elevated oil prices will likely be a drag on net exports," ADB said.
After a technology upgrade, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) appears poised for an improvement in volumes. The premier commodity and forex exchange reported a loss of Rs 19.1 crore in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24). This was attributed to higher software charges payable under an extended service agreement with 63 moons technologies and a one-off cost towards core guaranteed funds (CGF).
An expert committee, whose report is being awaited by the government to decide whether futures trading on essential commodities should be banned, has found no firm evidence that such trading was leading to rise in prices. An expert committee under the chairmanship of Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen to study the impact of futures trading on prices of agricultural commodities. Delisting of tur, urad rice and wheat from the futures market has not affected price movement.
'You should always maintain an allocation to gold as it has the ability to counterbalance any correction in the equity market.'
Petrol and diesel prices on Thursday climbed to fresh highs in the country as rates were hiked by the most in recent times, even as fuel retailers said the government can cut taxes to ease consumer burden. Petrol and diesel price was hiked by 35 paise per litre each after a gap of a week, according to price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. The increase took petrol prices to a fresh high of Rs 86.65 a litre in Delhi and to Rs 93.20 in Mumbai.
The WPI inflation stood at negative 2.4% in May 2015, compared with a negative 2.65% in April 2015.
'There are occasions when the prices of individual items like food raise inflation; then supply-side measures must be taken.' 'But if there is continued inflation, it means liquidity is aggravating the situation.'
Analysts refuse to read too much into the early birds numbers.
Decrying the hike in diesel prices as "unjustified" action, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa on Tuesday demanded its roll back and withdrawal of powers granted to oil companies to regulate fuel prices.
